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Original Research
Peste des petits ruminants cases in Nigeria: A 10-year retrospective study from 2015 to 2024
Submitted: 08 July 2025 | Published: 21 November 2025
About the author(s)
Deborah A. Adetunji, Department of Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Ogun State, Nigeria; and, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; and, College of Veterinary Surgeons of Nigeria, Abuja, NigeriaOluwaseun A. Ogundijo, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; and, College of Veterinary Surgeons of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria
Ahmad I. Al-Mustapha, College of Veterinary Surgeons of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria; and, Department of Veterinary Services, Kwara State Ministry of Livestock Development, Ilorin, Nigeria; and, Department of Food Hygiene and Environmental Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Habiba Momoh, College of Veterinary Surgeons of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria; and, Federal College of Animal Health and Production Technology, National Veterinary Research Institute, Vom, Nigeria
John O. Emethilue, College of Veterinary Surgeons of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria; and, Department of Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Asaba, Nigeria
Oluwakemi A. Osunderu, College of Veterinary Surgeons of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria; and, Research Coordinating Unit, Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan, Nigeria
Veronica E. Adetunji, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
Emmanuel J. Awosanya, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
Abstract
Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an endemic, transboundary animal disease (TAD) that affects small ruminants and threatens Nigeria’s food and economic security. This study evaluated the PPR cases in Nigeria using data from the World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS). Secondary data of PPR (2015-2024) were analysed as descriptive statistics, and we forecasted PPR cases from 2025 to 2030. Our findings showed temporal variations in PPR reports and case trends, with more cases (reports) between 2020 and 2024. There were significant variations in PPR cases across the six agro-ecological zones of Nigeria (p = 0.025) and across the states (p < 0.001). Bauchi (27.6%, n = 19 557/70 827) had over one-quarter of all national disease load, and Katsina had 9.6% (n = 6767/70 827) of the national PPR cases over the study period. Seven states had less than 50 cases, with Lagos and Ogun states having the lowest reports of PPR with 19 and 9 cases, respectively. Trend analysis forecasted an annual increase in the number of PPR cases, with at least 20 048 PPR cases in 2025, 22 838 cases in 2026, 25 737 cases in 2027, 28 745 cases in 2028, 31 860 cases in 2029, with the estimated number of cases rising to approximately 35 085 cases by 2030. The average case fatality rate for the 10 years was 14.1%. Hence, we estimated that at least 23 168 animals will be lost to PPR over the forecasted period.
Contribution: The study emphasises the need for region-specific surveillance, targeted vaccination strategies, and predictive modelling tools for effective control and eradication efforts.
Keywords
Sustainable Development Goal
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